CPO Futures Open-outcry Trader -1-

The Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange or KLCE (now Bursa Malaysia Derivative or BMD) had licensed individual trading participants as we always called " LOCALs " (traders) who did their trading business through the open outcry trading platform before electronic trading system was implemented in early year 2000.    

Start writing this post with a mindset to give credit to all these ex-Locals in open outcry trading that had actually contributed their trading lives growing such a high risk business for this country. Be frank, not many individuals outside this CPO Futures industry know about their existence.

Local T--

First to write about is a LOCAL who was wearing a red vest with alpha code T-- (Sorry for not giving the full alpha code) on the open outcry trading floor. Red vest was specifically allocated to all Locals for easy to be identified during trading to avoid unnecessary issues.   

I already knew Local T-- before joining the floor trading desk at the Dayabumi Complex where the Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange was located, my branch manager told me that all eyed on him since big boys outside the trading ring also kept monitoring his trading movements. This was because he did big trades! I was just a young floor runner waiting to be a qualified floor trader when my company took me in and gave me the opportunity to start working on the floor. 

Surprisingly, after knowing him in person, he was actually the one who taught me all kinds of trading skills especially introduced and guided me how to use technical trend indicators. Learning from the basic theory to calculate day by day historical data manually! MANUALLY ok! The kind of Hard Work without the help of computer generated formulas.

Story that never being written until today...

• Turning few thousands to a million
• Lost millions and started over again
• Taking high risk bets and re-built millions fortunes 
• Slumped and insolvent due to over-trading
• Never Ever Over-trading was his last advise to me.

T--, from the bottom of my heart, I salute You. Thanks and may your soul find rest.

心灵环保 2023

社会乱象

环境恶化

深切感受

人心净化

自然保护

各方回響

持平常心

具体效果

自主自在

智慧双修

25+ Years On CPO Futures Trading

Here are probably some of the utmost importance things I have learnt and realized:

1. Find your own rhythm and niche... Where is your strength? scalping or day trading is fun and exciting but do you have the time consistently and mental agility! So, do what you good at NOT what you want to do.
2. Trading is like other businesses... Survivorship and fighting of your whole life! If you need money desperately in order to pay your monthly bills, go get a job first instead of trading because it is already so much of pressure in trading. To succeed in trading, you need to avoid those noises!
3. Capital is King... So, never ever let losses wipe out your capital. Don't do anything stupid that can jeopardise your capital. Grow your profit first and only take 50% risk on your profit.
4. Trading Technical... You won't have the opportunity of "First Hand Info" and you can't trade on it too! Thus, find a technical indicator (or 2!) that suit your trading mentality. Do research on its historical and theoretical profit and loss, patterns of losing trades and maximum drawdowns, monthly profit and loss, proven profitable yearly trades that is must show profit every year...etc. 
5. Hard work... Money won't fall from the sky, a lot of trial and error in trading success from technical (trend) indicator trading. Therefore, paper trading your entry and exit points in order to find your trading patterns and it is less painful than doing real trading to find your trading discipline.

Good Luck

Be a disciplined trader.

FCPO Review 2022 - Self Journey

If 12 months is a life span of 100 year-old man, 9 months in this year is telling us that we have reached 3/4 of life span or we are 75 years "old" now!?

The 9 months in FCPO this year is definitely making many feel like 75 years old !!! A history of self journey that worth to write it down for future reference.

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives experienced high volatility with historical high 7268 in the 3rd active contract month of FCPO had made many players going through many sleepless nights and hard to believe especially those "young shoots" not mature enough to stand the heat of volatile price swing and impact on their own financial limitations trading futures contracts that never happened before along the journey of their trading life.

• At 6pm close 31/12/2021@4705, FCPO started creating new higher high every single week continuously in 10 weeks in a row to start its bull-run for the beginning of year 2022. 
• After reaching historical high 7268, FCPO had almost 3 months of wide and wild trading range between 7000 and 5500. Then, we saw a flush of 2000 points in 10 trading days in June from 6500 to 4500. 
• FCPO remains its wild and wide trading range between 4500 and 3500 until end of September.

Looking at the above 3 important intervals, it is like a life journey of 75 years old man! 

• First 25 years, we are growing up, 
• Second 25 years we are facing the real working life, 
• Third 25 years we mature and settle down !
• What will be the Fourth 25 years then? Let's wait and see !

FCPO 3rd Active Contract Month

Read your own technical trend indicators especially the one that you most comfortable with. 

Calculate its historical profit and loss every year, every month. 

Find its Multiple Losing Trades and Maximum Drawdown.

Put your stop loss, let the profit run (until next SAR or based on your limit!)

More will be updated here once we reach 100!? Cheers!

无形的布施

虽然总是一种短暂的心境

却可得到一种瞬间的解脱

默默的关心和帮助你我他

换来了淡淡的觉醒和自在

心想我们有时说话和做事

无形中会伤害别人和自己

大千世界人人都有一颗心

无需强求你我他都能接受

淡然静守慈悲心随缘自在

便是智慧体现无形布施了

FCPO Performance For Year 2021

Ask yourselves 3 questions ...

1. Can you still be you if you have that kind of losing months?
2. Can you still do the same trades for the whole year?
3. Can you still be a disciplined technical trend trader?

Here is the month by month theoretical accumulated profit and loss for CPO Futures trades in year 2021 in the cpofutures blog following a technical trend indicator: 

1. January +347
2. February -187
3. March +251
4. April -335
5. May +340
6. June +244
7. July 000
8. August +409
9. September -624
10. October 000
11. November -81
12. December ?? Answer:  !

So, Accumulated Gross Profit or Loss in theory = ??? points per contract basis

To all readers traders, CPO Futures @ Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in the cpofutures blog (My FCPO Diary!) that I did update frequently last year at best I could to record the Stop and Reverse trading signals, guided by my late Sifu, will be continued next year.

The ONE year ONE post in the CPO Futures blog for year 2022 will be posted by end of this year or early next year and early trading signals will also be updated before the next opening day at best I can unless there is an unforeseen circumstances.

In memory of my Sifu again, TOP , always remember...

• Do Not Ever Over-Trade.
• Be A Disciplined Trader.

Best regards and Happy New Year.

禅意：经历

现实生活

充实体验

豁达人生

鼓励自己

逆境前进

心系禅意

法喜充满

(•‿•)(•‿•)

The Pursuit of Happiness

“Well, I am someone who believes in finding happiness. My goal at the beginning of the year was simple: Let’s be happier than last year... Don’t we all want to be happy? Aren’t we all doing whatever we do in order to be happy? Unexpectedly, as soon as happiness became my goal, I achieved more than ever.” - Inbee Park, Golfer of the Year 2013.

The above quote was in my draft since 8 years ago and I finally read it again.

Being a human, we all always wish to find ourselves in the pursuit of happiness from whatever endeavors that we had gone through since young.

Looking back the past 8 years as a "human", the ups and downs trading in Capital Markets and Derivatives would not be easy for many to "achieve" the goals they set.

Year 2020 was a vision by many but coronavirus struck the world! Lock-down, planes grounded, overburden hospitals and many unrecorded incidents that became hot topics in social medias.

Year 2021 now, the unprecedented crisis from the virus remain the main subject that we must live with it. Vaccination in progress but many lost their loved ones.

Read the above quote again, read in our minds, replacing some words to motivate ourselves...

• well... I am someone who still believe in finding happiness...
• my goal... let's be happier than last year...
• Don't we all want to be happy? Our loved ones forever in our hearts... wishing us well.
• I can achieve more... be positive and life must go on.

Like something in a movie, you are the main character, shooting not end yet, you must hold on.

Do your research, focus on it, do your trades.

Be a disciplined trader, be a disciplined human. Cheers! 

  

网址和书籍 - 正信的佛教

在很多年前看过了这本书。

冷藏保存在我生活周围中！

现在发现到它, 再擁有它！

6识6根6尘18界3大类。第107页。

宇宙人生, 相互扶持和制约, 必得六根清净。

70个真实题材, 生活写照。

提升人的品质, 建设人间净土。

与大家分享, 正信的佛教网址 。

🙏无关传教, 学无止境🙏

凤凰于飞 一诺千金

凤金内人 凰鸾鹤立

于安思危 飞遁离俗

一如既往 诺诺连声

千锤百炼 金身罗汉

长斋礼佛天下太平

长斋在文明社会环境发展过程当中不乏拥护者和批评者,

礼佛因人而異的千年姿势动态却没有因此被打住或消失。

天下无不散之宴席但聚散无常人生路上免不了喜怒哀乐,

太平盛世之下不忘未雨绸缪且但愿可长斋礼佛天下太平。

长平 ： 一个长途跋涉却平坦淡然的故事开始了

70年代的某年某月某日某時,

一个人类科学自然规律性的小生命,

开始了他人生的第一步！

希望人生中的点点滴滴, 

将能在这里找到自己的过去,现在和未来！

心想... 

走了万里路就可否讲讲五十步笑百步的话呢 ? 

五十来了呀! 还要有心情继续笑至百岁 !
其实, 在这只想写出来过去的事实告诉自己,

那些是曾经拥有的生活方式和社会责任意识。

我对天地之间的一切万物有多少了解？
理解了些什么？
能谱写出来的答案又会是什么？
彩色人生路还是模糊不清的时候, 

孩子一个一个的长大了。

心又再想啊...

是不是时候应该开始写写日记了？
了解自己生命的契机。

修行嘛, 不只是为了遇见佛吧！
而是为了想遇见自己,

希望在部落格里,

能留下一丝丝的痕迹,

让我你他都能与社会接轨。

The Last Quarter Of Year 2020 For CPO Futures

Covid-19 pandemic, Financial Crisis, Political tensions... What a year will be ended for the year 2020! Put all things aside, we will still be focusing on CPO Futures trading for the last quarter of this year 2020. Here is the month by month accumulated profit and loss and all will be recorded here:

1. January +820 (huge profit due to open position carried forward from last year.)
2. February +108
3. March -135
4. April -89
5. May +217
6. June +289
7. July -188
8. August -283
9. September +138
10. October ?? Answer: -82
11. November ?? Answer: +105
12. December ?? Answer: -219 !

31/12/2020 note: Accumulated Gross Profit in theory = 681 points per contract basis

• Refer : https://cpofutures.blogspot.com/2020/01/cpo-futures-trades-in-year-2020.html

What will be the performance for the October, November and December? We will update them every end of the months and sum up the whole year performance too. Readers traders can just keep coming back to this post to check and read what notes that we will add in here.

As we can see the above monthly accumulated profit and loss in the CPO Futures blog too, we know that there were good profits and bad trades also. 

Eye on the losing trades is basically the most important job that we traders must be careful to avoid overtrading. For example, you might have doing very well in the first quarter of the year and double up your trading sizes, this will eventually kill you especially in August and September where the total multiple losing trades could wipe out all your capital due to overtrading! 

Therefore, Don't OVER-TRADE, it kills good trader. 

Wishing all the best to all readers traders who have kept coming back to follow up my blogs. We all face new NORM. Take care of yourselves and your loved ones. 

Notes: 

1st Q: +820+108-135 = +793

2nd Q: -89+217+289 = +417

3rd Q: -188-283+138 = -333

4th Q: ??? -82+105-219 = -196

Accumulated Gross Profit in theory = 681 points per contract basis.

20/11: Year 2020 almost come to an end! It is time to stop updating my market views about the entry and exit points, or Stop and Reverse Point, after doing the summary write-up the performance of year 2020. I wish all my readers traders in my CPO Futures blog, 101indicators blog and CPYEOH blog do learn something about technical trend indicators trading and succeed in their trading too.

24/11: RBD Palm Olein Futures in Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) will be open to overseas traders from 22/11/2020 based on the Exchange's news. Global palm oil production >70 million tons in 2019 (1/3 of global vege oil output). It has 5.77x trading volume of BMD!!! 

2/12: 20 more trading days to see the final result and judge the performance of year 2020! Figures looks good but will probably under perform if exclude the huge carried forward position from year 2019!

31/12/20:

After running both blogs concurrently ( CPO Futures blog and CPYEOH blog) in just 2 posts for the whole year especially for palm oil readers traders to digest, I have finally done my part to share my personal theoretical view on technical trend trading on the stop and reverse trade signals.

For me, trading is like other businesses, you must know how to run the business! By looking through month after month, quarter after quarter, we can plan our risk and money management well ahead to avoid unnecessary issues like margin calls and over-trading.

For example, readers traders can see there are profit months and losing month and quarterly performance. I not worry about profits and wish to focus on the losing months and quarters which many traders will probably wiped out if not well capitalized yourselves!

Can you still be you if you have that kind of losing months?

Can you still do the same trades for the whole year?

Can you be a disciplined technical trend trader?

Ask yourselves the 3 above questions! If can, welcome to technical trend trading's world.

In memory of my sifu, TOP, always remember...

• Do Not Ever Over-Trade.
• Be A Disciplined Trader.

Happy New Year to all readers traders.

September And Q3 Trading On CPO Futures

 After getting clobbered horribly in July and August trading on CPO Futures, we need to see how the performance is in September in order to wind up the Q3 results. 

Quarter by quarter and month by month results will all have to be monitored closely like all types of businesses in order to achieve the trading success using CPO Futures blog's technical trend trading strategy.

As written in July and August's comments, we will keep updating this post as an on going basis until the end of September, readers traders can keep coming back to this post for any latest write up that I have in mind and update it here (readers traders should have knowing the July and August's losses):

July's accumulated loss = ?... Answer: 188 ticks

August's accumulated loss = ?... Answer: 283 ticks

September's accumulated profit or loss = ?... Answer: +138

3rd Quarter (Q3)'s accumulated profit or loss = ? Answer: -188-283+138= -333

Notes:

15/9: As can see in CPO Futures blog, the theoretical buy on the last day of August had been carried forward to September and it is still holding on until today. The stop and reverse sell signal is 2778 today and it is considered quite low. The Ringgit is now 4.1350-4.1400, stronger than yesterday buy soyoil overnight and Dalian all up 2 - 3%

23/9: To protect our account from losing too much in unfavorable situation like in multiple losing trades that statistically very difficult to recover or break-even, the kind of high capital risk ratio need to be set to a maximum amount of risk in the multiple losing trades not just in a single trade. A single trade may lose 50/100+ ticks, but multiple losing trades can be 500+ ticks in , say, 15 continuous losing trades that wipe out all the money that a good trader have but without good risk management. Your hard work in 10 years profits can be wiped out in "one" multiple losing trades. So, think about it.  

24/9: Today has another price under theoretical assumption. CPO Future started 2825 but the theoretical sell is 2839. However, we will continue using the theoretical assumption for consistency write-up to avoid unnecessary issues.  

30/9: We only have ONE stop and reverse trade in this month. It happened on 24/9. Therefore, we have put in the above answers!!!

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2020 - Horror July August

 We finally able to see the horror of July and August after enjoying the first 6 months of year 2020. 

The 2nd half of this year started with Multiple Losing Trades or MLTs that I always like to quote it. It is the continuous losing trades that can easily kill good traders who "over-trade" suddenly confidently. 

Imagine you face 10 to 20 MLTs in a row, losing 400+ ticks per contract size basis and you are being wiped out due to over-trading. No more money to trade and trends come as what you are expecting.

Greed and Fear - finally kill you. How!? Go to CPO Futures blog to see what is the damage for July August. Scary right!

(More will be updated here in this post by end of this month - stay tune on this post and come back again.)

This were the profit and loss trades for August : +6-75-66-69-59-20 = -283

Let's wait and see what will be the accumulated profit and loss for August this Friday.

Final: 

• The theoretical accumulated loss for August is 283 ticks per contract size basis.
• The actual accumulated loss for August can be more than 300 ticks per contract size basis since there is one trade that unable to be filled at the theoretical SAR at 2701 on 28/8 opening.
• Even though there is a possibility of actual lower accumulated loss due to change of contract month on the 16/8 but profit here is not important since focus is the losses that how far the multiple losing trades that can wipe out good technical trend traders when the traders start over-trading.

Therefore, control the greed and fear!

The issue of theoretical prices in SARs can be replaced with opening prices in order to make sure that there is an actual trade. Then, the profit and loss will be calculated according to the opening prices.

Be a disciplined technical trend trader.    

 

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2020 - July Comment

Multiple Losing Trades happened in July and certain technical trend traders could lose more than RM5,000 (or 200 ticks) per lot in just 5 continuous losing trades! Go to CPO Futures blog and readers traders will be able to see the July trades per contract size basis. We just hope that July is the only month in Multiple Losing Trades!

Always remember to know that trading is not for excitement if you want to make fortunes unless you have tons of money to waste in trading. We know that we cannot avoid Multiple Losing Trades in CPO Futures trading or any other futures products and we must therefore be able to survive such stressful trades that may kill us. 

So, here is my thoughts for this July - Multiple Losing Trades and NO Excitement. 

• Multiple Losing Trades or MLTs - Since we can't avoid MLTs, we raise up our Capital Risk Ratio! Manage high CRR at 5x or even higher if you know that you have proven profitable trades year after year on your trading system. For example, 5x CRR on CPO Futures mean you are only trading 1 (yes, ONE) lot for every RM20,000 in your account! If you can do this without affecting your trading psychology, trading success is not just a dream for you. Keep it up with such psychology and discipline.
• No Excitement - if you want to waste you money on excitement in trading, go ahead and thank you. Technical trend indicator is a kind of program trading indicator and traders will have to put in the orders to trade based on the indicator ! Therefore, be ready to get as boring as possible like a program that have no feeling. Just do your homework and make sure your technical trend indicator has a yearly proven profitable record for the past 10-20 years, then just "BLINDLY" follow and be BORED.

Five more months to go and we shall able to see what is the year end result for the technical trend indicator in CPO Futures trades in Year 2020 updated in CPO Futures blog. The credit has to be given to TOP who had just passed away recently. He taught me the technical trend indicator in year 1990s. The technical trend indicator made profits every year for the past 10 (ten) years except in year 2018 made a loss of 8 ticks (gross in theory). So, you should know how stressful in year 2018!!!

Just for a record: July's Accumulated Loss : 188 ticks per contract size!

Timing A trend To Continue Or To End

It is a skill on its own to time a trend whether to continue or to end unless you are fully depending on program trading that normally cut off the top and bottom 10 to 20%, meaning you won't be able to pick top and bottom since relying historical data calculation alone.

Many traders have poorly (or badly) timed the entries and exits due to the misread the trends especially rely on too many price signals and confirmation. Therefore, try find yourself the most technical trend indicator that you comfortable with and work on its historical records year after year to find its yearly profit and loss record. Then, try the real trading without "over-trading".

I had previously told many readers traders about the probability of trading success:

• 95% failed, 4% survived and 1% made fortunes.
• Squeeze yourself in the 4% category first in the first 5 to 10 years.
• You will be in the 1% category only after succeeding the 4%. 

So, how to time a trend if you are a technical trend trader? The answer is almost near to ZERO!

You have to mathematically know that your year after year trading (January to December like doing business with financial ended December) has proven profit record first if you are following almost 100% the technical trend indicator at least 3 to 5 years. 

The answer is near Zero because technical trend traders face a lot of multiple losing trades and only have few good trends to catch in one year. Before you manage to catch a trend, you may have losing all your money in multiple losing trades due to over trading and no more money when a trend has come for you to grab. So, try get though the storm first - The Multiple Losing Trades. Survive in the 4% category first. 

Maintain high capital risk ratio management and make your trading as boring as possible.

Be disciplined trader.