FCPO Performance For Year 2021

Ask yourselves 3 questions ...

1. Can you still be you if you have that kind of losing months?
2. Can you still do the same trades for the whole year?
3. Can you still be a disciplined technical trend trader?

Here is the month by month theoretical accumulated profit and loss for CPO Futures trades in year 2021 in the cpofutures blog following a technical trend indicator: 

1. January +347
2. February -187
3. March +251
4. April -335
5. May +340
6. June +244
7. July 000
8. August +409
9. September -624
10. October 000
11. November -81
12. December ?? Answer:  !

So, Accumulated Gross Profit or Loss in theory = ??? points per contract basis

To all readers traders, CPO Futures @ Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in the cpofutures blog (My FCPO Diary!) that I did update frequently last year at best I could to record the Stop and Reverse trading signals, guided by my late Sifu, will be continued next year.

The ONE year ONE post in the CPO Futures blog for year 2022 will be posted by end of this year or early next year and early trading signals will also be updated before the next opening day at best I can unless there is an unforeseen circumstances.

In memory of my Sifu again, TOP , always remember...

• Do Not Ever Over-Trade.
• Be A Disciplined Trader.

Best regards and Happy New Year.

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2020 - Horror July August

 We finally able to see the horror of July and August after enjoying the first 6 months of year 2020. 

The 2nd half of this year started with Multiple Losing Trades or MLTs that I always like to quote it. It is the continuous losing trades that can easily kill good traders who "over-trade" suddenly confidently. 

Imagine you face 10 to 20 MLTs in a row, losing 400+ ticks per contract size basis and you are being wiped out due to over-trading. No more money to trade and trends come as what you are expecting.

Greed and Fear - finally kill you. How!? Go to CPO Futures blog to see what is the damage for July August. Scary right!

(More will be updated here in this post by end of this month - stay tune on this post and come back again.)

This were the profit and loss trades for August : +6-75-66-69-59-20 = -283

Let's wait and see what will be the accumulated profit and loss for August this Friday.

Final: 

• The theoretical accumulated loss for August is 283 ticks per contract size basis.
• The actual accumulated loss for August can be more than 300 ticks per contract size basis since there is one trade that unable to be filled at the theoretical SAR at 2701 on 28/8 opening.
• Even though there is a possibility of actual lower accumulated loss due to change of contract month on the 16/8 but profit here is not important since focus is the losses that how far the multiple losing trades that can wipe out good technical trend traders when the traders start over-trading.

Therefore, control the greed and fear!

The issue of theoretical prices in SARs can be replaced with opening prices in order to make sure that there is an actual trade. Then, the profit and loss will be calculated according to the opening prices.

Be a disciplined technical trend trader.    

 

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2020 - 2nd Comment (June)

Ending June will be either a profitable month or zero, (not losing month!), since the long position at 2077 from 15th May had been carried forward to June and still holding on until today.

January to March (Q1), the accumulated profit was +820+108-135 = 793 per contract basis.

April to June (Q2), the accumulated profit will be -89+217+289= 417 per contract basis

What will be the Q2 accumulated profit or loss? I will be updated here again at the end of June. (updated on 30/6/2020)

Readers traders can read the technical trend trading on crude palm oil futures or CPO Futures that I had set up a special updates in year 2020 for CPO Futures Trading in the CPO Futures blog, click the link here - https://cpofutures.blogspot.com/.

It is a simple update with latest trade signals ( ONE day early at best I can for you to decide) and notes.

The advance (early) trade signal is in the Buy / Sell trade signals with Date. However, if there is no change in the date, I may have been away for something else and miss the update and wish to apologize for failing to update them.

As readers traders can see the Item 1 to 10, there are words with smallest fonts and strikethrough (like this), it is telling you that the Trade Signal had been triggered and the Price was stated after the Buy / Sell.

In the notes, readers traders can search for the monthly accumulated profit and loss. We will keep updating all the details in the notes until end of the year to get the Full Year Performance.

Be a disciplined CPO Futures trader.

Sell is Sell

Buy is Buy

Don't Hesitate.

It is a sad day to hear an ex cpo futures open outcry TOP trader passed away some day in this month.  

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2020 - 1st Comment (May)

After keeping all the advance updates for readers traders to digest technical trend trading on crude palm oil futures or CPO Futures for the past many years, I had set up a special new unconventional updates in year 2020 for CPO Futures Trading in 2020 in the CPO Futures blog.

Refer to the link https://cpofutures.blogspot.com/ for the simple advance update which I had done it for the past 4 months with notes.

For new readers traders, read thoroughly paragraph by paragraph then only check the itemized trade signals. The notes at the bottom is the write-up when I think it is time to keep a note there. 

In the past 4 months, the advance trade signal had always been updated in advance at best I can as readers traders can see them in the Buy / Sell signals with Date. If there is no change in the date, I may have been away for something else and miss the update and wish to apologize for failing to update them.

As readers traders can see the Item 1 to 10, there are words with smallest fonts and strikethrough (like this), it is telling you that the Trade Signal had been triggered and the Price was stated after the Buy / Sell.

In the notes, readers traders can search for the monthly accumulated profit and loss. We will keep updating all the details in the notes until end of the year to get the Full Year Performance.

Best regards to all readers traders and be disciplined traders if you are trading CPO Futures.

When CPO Futures Has Reached Targets - 2

When CPO Futures has failed in hitting yearly target, how?

It is believed that no one technical trend indicator will do superbly well every trading year. As readers traders can see in the 12pm6pm indicator and another indicator that we did update for the year 2016 as shown below titles.

December CPO Futures Trading Plan
The Stop And Reverse Trade Signals For Year 2016

Both technical trend indicators had their best year and worst year before, and will continue do the same year after year. For example, The first one is hitting less than 800 ticks yearly target this year while the second one is more than 800 ticks based on per contract size basis. Therefore, one is earning less than 100% yearly rate of return while the other one is more than 100% yearly rate of return.

Find your own comfort zone on which technical trend indicator you like most and work on it. Then, you will know how far you can go.

We write and publish it today (15/12/2016) even though it is not the last trading day for year 2016 as we wish to send out early greeting to all CPO Futures traders - Happy New Year and wish you all have a good and prosperous year ahead.

Final advice: 

1. since you are not super trader, do your job on "Data Collection" to build up your discipline, 
2. face the "Multiple Losing Trades" to strengthen your trading psychology, and, 
3. conquer the "Fear and Greed" in trading success.

Please refer the first article by clicking HERE.

All the best to all CPO Futures technical trend traders.

When CPO Futures Has Reached Targets - 1

As CPO Futures traders can refer from the CPO Futures blog that we had finished the first quarter of this year with a gross profit of 117 ticks or equivalent to RM2,925.00 per contract size basis from the 15 stop and reverse trades. Click HERE if you wish to see the stop and reverse trades for year 2016.

It seems that we have a good start for the second quarter but the focus is still on the stop and reverse trade signals that we wish to find a target level before we call it a day.

We will continue updating the stop and reverse trade signals until the end of year 2016. However, we will assume a job done once a certain profit target level is reached. For example, we may call a 50% rate of return as the target from a conservative seed capital of RM20,000 per contract size basis.

Therefore, with the above 50% assumption, we have already generated accumulated profits from the technical trend indicator with 117 ticks of profit as mentioned above and we just need another 283 ticks in order to reach 400 ticks accumulated profits or the 50% rate of return profit target from the RM20,000 seed capital based on one contract size basis.

We will publish the second post in this blog or update in this post once we have the stop and reverse trade signal that help accumulating profit of more than 400 ticks. Let's see when can we reach the target!

(20/5/2016 update: The technical trend indicator has basically reached its 400 ticks target.)
(26/5/2016 update: 360 ticks accumulated profits based on the stop and reverse signals.)
(30/6/2016 update: 405 ticks in 6 months, target hit much earlier than expected.)
(15/12/2016 update: Click HERE for the second post.)

What Is CPO Futures Doing Now?

Hello technical trend traders! What is the CPO Futures doing now!?

After taking a few months of 'doing nothing' (as my lovely kids always like to utter the two words after watching the Peppa Pig, the British animated TV series), I am starting to write and publish some words or updates in this blog while leaving the CPO Futures blog and 101 Indicators blog untouched.

Novice technical trend traders are encouraged and advised to read the above 2 weblogs page by page that I did try my very best to write all about technical trend trading especially in futures trading on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives with some guidance from the Trading CPO Futures @ Bursa Malaysia Derivatives and 101indicators On Futures Trading books.

Go to the CPO Futures blog and you will find that there are stop and reverse trades signals since the beginning of this year that many traders have visited the page even though there is a much "delayed" data. Just keep visiting the CPO Futures blog and you will find there is a new trade signal in due course!

Not much I wish to write about for now. However, what I wish to tell traders that the stop and reverse trades have given a positive figure in the first quarter of this year, as generated in the computerised model of trading strategy. This is like making a quarterly report for a business entity in order to gauge the business survival and therefore technical trend traders can systematically track down the real performance beside doing back-testing on a technical trend indicator.

Be a disciplined trader.

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives - 7

Go to Bursa Malaysia official website, there is a Derivatives page, we can find the market statistics section and get all kind of historical data on futures products traded in Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. There is an interesting page that tell us the market demography on cpo futures locals as shown below:

source: Bursa Malaysia

What was the percentage contributed by locals from the above table October 2014 to March 2015? More than 30% of the cpo futures total volume was generated by locals!

The memory of cpo futures open outcry in the KLCE... Local's vest:

The Local's Vest

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives - 5

A Day Without Locals In KLCE

There was a day where all locals stayed away from the cpo futures floor trading:

Click It For Bigger View

This is a page that I got it from the Star Business on Thursaday, September 21, 1999. See what was the total open position? 6,968 contracts as compared to about 180,000 contracts now a day!

What was the volume? 517 lots! What happened to the open outcry floor trading on that day? 

As quoted in the Bernama, the market was dampened by a boycott on Commex when the call by local traders (who trade on their own behalf) for lower fees in the annual subscription was rejected by the Commex board, dealers said. (Commex was the ex-Bursa Malaysia Derivatives that we used to call KLCE before merging. There were names like MME, KLOFFE and MDEX too.)

I think the average daily volume for cpo futures trading was above 1000 lots when I was a floor trader before turning to be a "new and the last" local there, and such a volume was actually more than 50% drop not 35% drop as shown in the paper!

There will be another interesting page about the cpo futures trading floor at that time when all locals stay away from the cpo futures trading pit. It was about the "boycott"! Wait for a next post.

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives - 4

Institutional brokerage firm like KAF-Refco brought me in to work at the cpo futures trading desk as the company's floor trader from a typical Chinese physical cum futures brokerage firm called Convest; I was joining KAF-Refco ambitiously in believing they had a complete mathematical system that would probably have made them wildly rich. As I can recall, a well known palm oil analyst cum broker, G.M. Teoh, was also in the trading team, handling millions of ringgits worth of contracts for clients.

Thought they were serious and smarter than everyone else in the market by bringing more professional in full technical advantages on hand signals, the madness had actually turned the cpo futures trading pit into a "madhouse" until there were some floor traders in the forties dared not do trades! Whenever they went near to the pit, they felt they were risking their lives!!! They were so worried to make errors to fill a contract of cpo futures, be it the price or contract month! A kind of phobia in trading and preferably stayed in their own booths. 

Any way, the hoo-ha from KAF-Refco lasted less than one and a half years, I joined the last batch of the new "Locals" in KLCE open out-cry cpo futures trading. Many of whom enrolled were former trading clerks and trading floor employees knew well the risk and reward in trading cpo futures and wished to make their own first gold pots from such a risky trade that easily made or lose thousands in a day for a small trader.

Knowing trading cpo futures was so intoxicating, many never thought of learning how to survive and always forgot the simple theory in trading success like "cut loss fast, let profit run", including me!   

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives - 2

The "Locals" or the so called licensed speculators were given seats by the "ex" Bursa Malaysia Derivatives through the purchasing of trading permits or "memberships" at RM10,000 or RM30,000 in the 1990s when the BMD was mainly from the two separated entities, KLCE and KLOFFE. I was a Local in CPO Futures trading and did pay the RM10,000 to start trading with the trading permit after being interviewed and approved by the Board from KLCE.

Just for a record, the KLCE was last located in DayaBumi Complex near Dataran Merdeka before the open-outcry trading system was ended in December 2001. Here is the sample contract form issued by all floor traders in the cpo futures trading pit. It showed the Alpha code of Seller and Buyer while stating all the contract month in the International code format, price and size with time stamped to confirm the trade was done at the particular time. As shown below, the month codes and trading copies with time stamped on 27 Dec 2001:

	MONTH	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
	CODE	F	G	H	J	K	M	N	Q	U	V	X	Z

KLCE trading contract copies

The yellow copy was the seller's copy and seller must do time stamping once a trade was traded and issued a carbonized trading form that contained total five copies. First original white copy for KLCE, two duplicated yellow copies (for seller's clearing broker and seller) and two duplicated red copies (buyer's clearing broker and buyer).

The "Locals" did enjoy low transaction cost and even zero transaction cost on scratch trades which meant  when they buy and sell price at same price in different transaction in same trading day, they paid zero fee. These scratch trades did save a lot of trading cost especially for locals who active in spread trading while helped increasing the liquidity of the cpo futures market.