FCPO Performance For Year 2021

Ask yourselves 3 questions ...

1. Can you still be you if you have that kind of losing months?
2. Can you still do the same trades for the whole year?
3. Can you still be a disciplined technical trend trader?

Here is the month by month theoretical accumulated profit and loss for CPO Futures trades in year 2021 in the cpofutures blog following a technical trend indicator: 

1. January +347
2. February -187
3. March +251
4. April -335
5. May +340
6. June +244
7. July 000
8. August +409
9. September -624
10. October 000
11. November -81
12. December ?? Answer:  !

So, Accumulated Gross Profit or Loss in theory = ??? points per contract basis

To all readers traders, CPO Futures @ Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in the cpofutures blog (My FCPO Diary!) that I did update frequently last year at best I could to record the Stop and Reverse trading signals, guided by my late Sifu, will be continued next year.

The ONE year ONE post in the CPO Futures blog for year 2022 will be posted by end of this year or early next year and early trading signals will also be updated before the next opening day at best I can unless there is an unforeseen circumstances.

In memory of my Sifu again, TOP , always remember...

• Do Not Ever Over-Trade.
• Be A Disciplined Trader.

Best regards and Happy New Year.

September And Q3 Trading On CPO Futures

 After getting clobbered horribly in July and August trading on CPO Futures, we need to see how the performance is in September in order to wind up the Q3 results. 

Quarter by quarter and month by month results will all have to be monitored closely like all types of businesses in order to achieve the trading success using CPO Futures blog's technical trend trading strategy.

As written in July and August's comments, we will keep updating this post as an on going basis until the end of September, readers traders can keep coming back to this post for any latest write up that I have in mind and update it here (readers traders should have knowing the July and August's losses):

July's accumulated loss = ?... Answer: 188 ticks

August's accumulated loss = ?... Answer: 283 ticks

September's accumulated profit or loss = ?... Answer: +138

3rd Quarter (Q3)'s accumulated profit or loss = ? Answer: -188-283+138= -333

Notes:

15/9: As can see in CPO Futures blog, the theoretical buy on the last day of August had been carried forward to September and it is still holding on until today. The stop and reverse sell signal is 2778 today and it is considered quite low. The Ringgit is now 4.1350-4.1400, stronger than yesterday buy soyoil overnight and Dalian all up 2 - 3%

23/9: To protect our account from losing too much in unfavorable situation like in multiple losing trades that statistically very difficult to recover or break-even, the kind of high capital risk ratio need to be set to a maximum amount of risk in the multiple losing trades not just in a single trade. A single trade may lose 50/100+ ticks, but multiple losing trades can be 500+ ticks in , say, 15 continuous losing trades that wipe out all the money that a good trader have but without good risk management. Your hard work in 10 years profits can be wiped out in "one" multiple losing trades. So, think about it.  

24/9: Today has another price under theoretical assumption. CPO Future started 2825 but the theoretical sell is 2839. However, we will continue using the theoretical assumption for consistency write-up to avoid unnecessary issues.  

30/9: We only have ONE stop and reverse trade in this month. It happened on 24/9. Therefore, we have put in the above answers!!!

When CPO Futures Has Reached Targets - 1

As CPO Futures traders can refer from the CPO Futures blog that we had finished the first quarter of this year with a gross profit of 117 ticks or equivalent to RM2,925.00 per contract size basis from the 15 stop and reverse trades. Click HERE if you wish to see the stop and reverse trades for year 2016.

It seems that we have a good start for the second quarter but the focus is still on the stop and reverse trade signals that we wish to find a target level before we call it a day.

We will continue updating the stop and reverse trade signals until the end of year 2016. However, we will assume a job done once a certain profit target level is reached. For example, we may call a 50% rate of return as the target from a conservative seed capital of RM20,000 per contract size basis.

Therefore, with the above 50% assumption, we have already generated accumulated profits from the technical trend indicator with 117 ticks of profit as mentioned above and we just need another 283 ticks in order to reach 400 ticks accumulated profits or the 50% rate of return profit target from the RM20,000 seed capital based on one contract size basis.

We will publish the second post in this blog or update in this post once we have the stop and reverse trade signal that help accumulating profit of more than 400 ticks. Let's see when can we reach the target!

(20/5/2016 update: The technical trend indicator has basically reached its 400 ticks target.)
(26/5/2016 update: 360 ticks accumulated profits based on the stop and reverse signals.)
(30/6/2016 update: 405 ticks in 6 months, target hit much earlier than expected.)
(15/12/2016 update: Click HERE for the second post.)

Books And Ideas - 1

"...the book is an extension of the eye..." - Marshall McLuhan.

Going through the kind of business of taking risks, mostly with money, on crude palm oil futures trading in Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange (now Bursa Malaysia Derivatives) in the end of 1990s, I did see with my own eye some of my seniors were so successful in trading the commodity futures but there were also traders who failed and bankrupt.

After the commodity futures was migrated to electronic trading, all traders had since been doing in a quiet and "peaceful" environment, and some (including me) felt loss and missed the loud and noisy shouting open-outcry trading pits. This had prompted me to write my first book - Trading Crude Palm Oil Futures at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives - since there were plenty of time in a single room playing solitaire game in my personal computer while monitoring the futures market.

The book was published with ideas of leaving some good memory in printed copy that what open-outcry traders like me did in the hoo-ha super busy trading day when the 1997 Asian Financial crisis hit the commodity futures market (just do a google search on the 1997 Asian Financial crisis and you may know more than I do!). The book had the basic ideas in technical trading that I learned from my senior who was one of the biggest traders in crude palm oil futures trading in early 1990s.

Inside the book, there are three basic technical trend indicators that can be easily constructed using Microsoft Excel or any spreadsheet software in simple formulas (I was actually taught by my "ex-girl friend"!). Remember, "success must have a trading plan" - traders' wisdom.

At page 40 of the book, that is the trading plan that did help me to succeed in trading crude palm oil futures after acquiring the skill of how to use the three technical trend indicators. The table and the technical trend indicators has been part of my trading life that I still have them until today.

In trading success, I still like to advice novice traders: read 100 times a book is better than read 100 books.