Showing posts with label cpofutures blog. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cpofutures blog. Show all posts

Friday, October 09, 2020

The Last Quarter Of Year 2020 For CPO Futures

Covid-19 pandemic, Financial Crisis, Political tensions... What a year will be ended for the year 2020! Put all things aside, we will still be focusing on CPO Futures trading for the last quarter of this year 2020. Here is the month by month accumulated profit and loss and all will be recorded here:

  1. January +820 (huge profit due to open position carried forward from last year.)
  2. February +108
  3. March -135
  4. April -89
  5. May +217
  6. June +289
  7. July -188
  8. August -283
  9. September +138
  10. October ?? Answer: -82
  11. November ?? Answer: +105
  12. December ?? Answer: -219 !
31/12/2020 note: Accumulated Gross Profit in theory = 681 points per contract basis
What will be the performance for the October, November and December? We will update them every end of the months and sum up the whole year performance too. Readers traders can just keep coming back to this post to check and read what notes that we will add in here.

As we can see the above monthly accumulated profit and loss in the CPO Futures blog too, we know that there were good profits and bad trades also. 

Eye on the losing trades is basically the most important job that we traders must be careful to avoid overtrading. For example, you might have doing very well in the first quarter of the year and double up your trading sizes, this will eventually kill you especially in August and September where the total multiple losing trades could wipe out all your capital due to overtrading! 

Therefore, Don't OVER-TRADE, it kills good trader. 

Wishing all the best to all readers traders who have kept coming back to follow up my blogs. We all face new NORM. Take care of yourselves and your loved ones. 

Notes: 

1st Q: +820+108-135 = +793
2nd Q: -89+217+289 = +417
3rd Q: -188-283+138 = -333
4th Q: ??? -82+105-219 = -196
Accumulated Gross Profit in theory = 681 points per contract basis.

20/11: Year 2020 almost come to an end! It is time to stop updating my market views about the entry and exit points, or Stop and Reverse Point, after doing the summary write-up the performance of year 2020. I wish all my readers traders in my CPO Futures blog, 101indicators blog and CPYEOH blog do learn something about technical trend indicators trading and succeed in their trading too.

24/11: RBD Palm Olein Futures in Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) will be open to overseas traders from 22/11/2020 based on the Exchange's news. Global palm oil production >70 million tons in 2019 (1/3 of global vege oil output). It has 5.77x trading volume of BMD!!! 

2/12: 20 more trading days to see the final result and judge the performance of year 2020! Figures looks good but will probably under perform if exclude the huge carried forward position from year 2019!

31/12/20:
After running both blogs concurrently ( CPO Futures blog and CPYEOH blog) in just 2 posts for the whole year especially for palm oil readers traders to digest, I have finally done my part to share my personal theoretical view on technical trend trading on the stop and reverse trade signals.

For me, trading is like other businesses, you must know how to run the business! By looking through month after month, quarter after quarter, we can plan our risk and money management well ahead to avoid unnecessary issues like margin calls and over-trading.

For example, readers traders can see there are profit months and losing month and quarterly performance. I not worry about profits and wish to focus on the losing months and quarters which many traders will probably wiped out if not well capitalized yourselves!

Can you still be you if you have that kind of losing months?
Can you still do the same trades for the whole year?
Can you be a disciplined technical trend trader?

Ask yourselves the 3 above questions! If can, welcome to technical trend trading's world.

In memory of my sifu, TOP, always remember...
  • Do Not Ever Over-Trade.
  • Be A Disciplined Trader.
Happy New Year to all readers traders.

Friday, September 04, 2020

September And Q3 Trading On CPO Futures

 After getting clobbered horribly in July and August trading on CPO Futures, we need to see how the performance is in September in order to wind up the Q3 results. 

Quarter by quarter and month by month results will all have to be monitored closely like all types of businesses in order to achieve the trading success using CPO Futures blog's technical trend trading strategy.

As written in July and August's comments, we will keep updating this post as an on going basis until the end of September, readers traders can keep coming back to this post for any latest write up that I have in mind and update it here (readers traders should have knowing the July and August's losses):

July's accumulated loss = ?... Answer: 188 ticks

August's accumulated loss = ?... Answer: 283 ticks

September's accumulated profit or loss = ?... Answer: +138

3rd Quarter (Q3)'s accumulated profit or loss = ? Answer: -188-283+138= -333

Notes:

15/9: As can see in CPO Futures blog, the theoretical buy on the last day of August had been carried forward to September and it is still holding on until today. The stop and reverse sell signal is 2778 today and it is considered quite low. The Ringgit is now 4.1350-4.1400, stronger than yesterday buy soyoil overnight and Dalian all up 2 - 3%

23/9: To protect our account from losing too much in unfavorable situation like in multiple losing trades that statistically very difficult to recover or break-even, the kind of high capital risk ratio need to be set to a maximum amount of risk in the multiple losing trades not just in a single trade. A single trade may lose 50/100+ ticks, but multiple losing trades can be 500+ ticks in , say, 15 continuous losing trades that wipe out all the money that a good trader have but without good risk management. Your hard work in 10 years profits can be wiped out in "one" multiple losing trades. So, think about it.  

24/9: Today has another price under theoretical assumption. CPO Future started 2825 but the theoretical sell is 2839. However, we will continue using the theoretical assumption for consistency write-up to avoid unnecessary issues.  

30/9: We only have ONE stop and reverse trade in this month. It happened on 24/9. Therefore, we have put in the above answers!!!