Friday, October 24, 2014

Finding Multiple Losing Trades

This article is more about futures trading using technical trend indicators and the capital risk ratio needed in order to have trading success.

As we will not know when we will keep buying and selling on trades that keep generating losses in a row on every single trade for more than we can afford to lose, we need to find the best solution by doing historical data collection and back testing them to find how is the pattern of the losing trades.

There was a very good example that happened recently on a technical trend indicator using in my 2 books especially in the "101indicators On Futures Trading" book where there were total 8 multiple losing trades in a row. If 1 point of losses is equivalent to 25 dollar, the 8 multiple losing trades had a total of 198 points of losses which costed a trader to lose slightly more than 5000 dollar per contract which included its trading cost. Without a higher capital risk ratio that more than 3x or even higher to 5x, a trader will fail to proceed his/her technical trend trading dream in futures trading after being hit with such a bad incident.

Remember, this can be happened in just a short period of time for less than a month while the technical trend trader may take more than three months only to recover the losses and accumulate profits in the next three months; which mean, it will be seven months to see a better result if the trader does face the losses in the first month where he starts. Can a novice trader equip with such a strong psychology patiently keep doing trades for seven months?

No doubt the technical trend indicator did make nearly 1000 points in 10 months in its accumulated profits since the beginning of this year, or 25,000 dollar per contract in accumulated profits in 10 months, it is still important for traders to realize that multiple losing trades will kill traders if there is no control in their capital risk ratio management.

In a simple note: Over-trading kills good technical trend traders. No need to keep searching high and low to find how to avoid multiple losing trades if you do not have such risk management discipline. Remember to find a technical trend indicator that can make good accumulated yearly profit year after year and you will be safe along your trading life cycle as a technical trend trader in futures trading.